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Blog :: 01-2016

Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

 

Loan Program

Up to $417,000

$417,001 - $601,450

$601,451-$1,000,000

30 yr Fixed Rate

3.875% APR 3.951%

4% APR 4.066%

3.75% APR 3.791%

15 yr Fixed Rate

3% APR 3.127%

3.375% APR 3.472%

3.25% APR 3.326%

5/1 Adjustable Rate

3% APR 3.132%

2.75% APR 2.813%

2.75% APR 2.794%

Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

Current Trend Direction: Higher, right at resistance

Advise Your Clients: Locking

Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.97, -3bp

Stocks are higher, but well off of their best levels as oil has started to slip lower again. This has helped Bonds gain some ground off of their worst levels. lso helping Stocks were positive earnings reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. 

China reported 6.9% GDP growth in 2015, down from 7.3% in 2014 and the slowest annual growth in 25 years.  The country’s transition to a more service oriented economy is a large, complicated change that will take more time and likely result in slower GDP numbers in the near-term.   

The only economic report due for release today is the January NAHB Housing Market Index coming in at 60, below the 61 expected. The rest of the week's calendar is on the light side with CPI, more housing data and the Philly Fed Index. 

There are no T-Note or Bond auctions this week. 

Technically, the Bond is trading above its 200-day moving average, but is having difficulty pushing through another tough level of resistance.  At the same time, the 10-year Note yield is at 2.05% after hitting 1.99% in the past few trading days.  New clients should be advised to lock

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    Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

     

    Loan Program

    Up to $417,000

    $417,001 - $601,450

    $601,451-$1,000,000

    30 yr Fixed Rate

    4% APR 4.076%

    4.125% APR 4.181%

    3.875% APR 3.920%

    15 yr Fixed Rate

    3.125% APR 3.258%

    3.5% APR 3.616%

    3.5% APR 3.580%

    5/1 Adjustable Rate

    3% APR 3.132%

    2.875% APR 2.931%

    2.875% APR 3.918%

    Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

    Current Trend Direction: Sideways beneath resistance at 200-day moving average

    Advise Your Clients:  Locking

    Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.72, -19bp

    Mortgage Bonds are giving back Friday's gains as Stocks, which are off to their worst start to begin a year on record, try to rebound.

    There are no economic reports due for release today and the week's calendar is on the light side.  The Treasury will be selling a boatload of 3- and 10-year Notes along with 30-year Bonds this week beginning on Tuesday.  

    Despite a big sell-off in the Asian Stock markets, the major indexes are set to open higher here in the States. Earnings season unofficially kicks off today with Alcoa reporting results after the closing bell on Wall Street.  S&P 500 earnings are forecast to have dropped 4.2% percent in the 4th quarter, which would be their 2nd straight

    Technically, the Bond was able to close above resistance at the 200-day moving average on Friday, but has fallen below that level today.  Seeing that this morning's losses will erase some or most of Friday's gains and the 200-day looks like it will once again be a tough ceiling ... consider advising clients to lock.

    It will be interesting to see how stocks trade going forward. The S&P 500 violated support at the 1,960 area ... a level that will be resistance going forward.

     

     

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      1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

      Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

       

      Loan Program

      Up to $417,000

      $417,001 - $601,450

      $601,451-$1,000,000

      30 yr Fixed Rate

      4% APR 4.076%

      4.25% APR 4.311%

      4% APR 4.039%

      15 yr Fixed Rate

      3.25% APR 3.383%

      3.5% APR 3.616%

      3.625% APR 3.698%

      5/1 Adjustable Rate

      3% APR 3.132%

      3% APR 3.058%

      3% APR 3.038%

      Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

      Current Trend Direction: Higher

      Advise Your Clients: Start Day Carefully Floating – but read on

      Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.38, +19bp

      There is nothing like some heightened Mideast tensions, wicked Stock selloff in China and a significant decline in Stocks here in the US to ring in the New Year.

      The big news so far this AM, is Saudi Arabia cutting off diplomatic ties with Iran?  This news has caused Oil to move higher on what could bring even more uncertainty to the region.  

      Weak economic news in China has caused a shockwave as their major Stock market is down a whopping 7% before circuit breakers kicked in and closed the market for the rest of the trading day.  All of this negativity and uncertainty has given Mortgage Bonds a somewhat modest boost.

      The yield on the 10-Year T-Note has fallen back down to 2.22% from Thursday's close of 2.28%. 

      The only economic report today is the 10am release of the December ISM Index. But investors will be looking ahead to the Friday release of the December Jobs Report, which features the closely watched Non-farm Payrolls report, where it is expected that employers added 200K new workers. 

      There are no Note or Bond auctions scheduled for this week. The Fed will be back in the markets this week purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities.  The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $2.325B in Fannie/Freddie 30-Year 3.5s and 4s later this morning.

      Seeing Mortgage Bonds up just 19bp in the face of very weak Stock prices is a bit of a concern, as we would expect to see more Bond gains in the face of such high uncertainty.  With that said, consider starting the day carefully floating new clients – with the key word being “carefully”.  It would not surprise us if Bonds give up some of these gains.  Looking ahead, we are likely going to advise locking in advance of the volatile Jobs Report later this week.

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