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Blog :: 09-2015

Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

 

Loan Program

Up to $417,000

$417,001 - $601,450

$601,451-$1,000,000

30 yr Fixed Rate

3.875% APR 3.951%

4% APR 4.066%

3.875% APR 4. 4.930%

15 yr Fixed Rate

3 % APR 3.127%

3.25% APR 3.369%

3.375% APR 3.442

5/1 Adjustable Rate

3% APR 3.132%

2.75% APR 2.801%

2.75% APR 2.788%

Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

Current Trend Direction: Topping out at resistance at 200-DMA

Advise Your Clients: Locking 

Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.94, -16bp

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower to begin the week as Stock prices bounce back following the big sell-off after the Fed statement on Thursday.

Over the weekend, Fed members John Williams of San Fran and James Bullard of St. Louis said they still expect an increase in 2015. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a 20% chance of a rate hike in October, 46% chance in December. Later this afternoon Atlanta's Dennis Lockhart will most likely weigh in on the subject, while Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking Thursday night.  The percentage chances of a hike speak for themselves...chances are we don't see one in 2015.

The only economic report due for release today is August Existing Home Sales at 10.  The rest of the week's calendar consists of Weekly Claims, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, GDP and Consumer Sentiment.  

Technically, the Bond has retreated from resistance at the 200-day Moving Average after having closed near that level on Friday.  With Stock prices on the rise today and with Mortgage Bonds back near the highs seen in late April, clients should feel good locking right here.

 

 

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    Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

     

    Loan Program

    Up to $417,000

    $417,001 - $601,450

    $601,451-$1,000,000

    30 yr Fixed Rate

    3.875% APR 3.951%

    4.125% APR 4.181%

    4% APR 4.039%

    15 yr Fixed Rate

    3% APR 3.127%

    3.375 % APR 3.472%

    3.5% APR 3.573%

    5/1 Adjustable Rate

    3% APR 3.132%

    2.75% APR 2.801%

    2.75% APR 2.788%

     

     

    Current Trend Direction: Sideways beneath resistance

    Advise Your Clients: Locking

    Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.75, -22bp

    Mortgage Bonds begin the holiday shortened week lower, being pressured by a rebound in Stocks.

    Today's action in Stocks is being fueled by expectations that the Chinese central bank will enact further stimulus measures. The news comes after Chinese exports fell in China for a 2nd straight month.

    After Friday's weaker than expected August Jobs Report, Fed Futures trading is indicating a 20% chance of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting, down from 30% before the report...this is also helping boost Stock prices.

    There are no economic reports due for release today and the calendar is light week with just Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, with PPI and Consumer Sentiment  on Friday. The Treasury plans to sell a total of $58B in 3 and 10-Year Notes, along with 30-Year Bonds this week, beginning today with the 3-Year paper, results at 1:00pm ET.

    Technically, the Bond still has not been able to break above key resistance at the 200-day Moving Average, this despite the big drop in Stocks since August 17.  We will continue to lock with prices being capped by this tough ceiling.

    Have a great week!  

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      Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist, Colleen Polson.

      Loan Program

      Up to $417,000

      $417,001 - $601,450

      $601,451-$1,000,000

      30 yr Fixed Rate

      4% APR 4.076%

      4.125% APR 4.181%

      4% APR 4.039%

      15 yr Fixed Rate

      3% APR 3.127%

      3.375 % APR 3.472%

      3.5% APR 3.573%

      5/1 Adjustable Rate

      2.875% APR 2.947%

      2.625% APR 2.686%

      2.75% APR 2.788%

       

       

      Current Trend Direction: Sideways between support and resistance

      Advise Your Clients: Carefully Floating

      Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.94, +19bp

      Mortgage Bonds are higher as volatility continues in the financial markets. 

      After losing meaningful pricing since last Monday's "momentary" pop higher - Bonds are trying to stabilize in advance of this Friday's Jobs Report. This report may give us insight as to if and when the Fed raises rates.  We still think a December one and done is more likely, but you just never know.  And it is this uncertainty that is weighing on Stocks at the moment, especially after the Fed's Stanley Fischer did not rule out a September rate over the weekend. 

      Technically - Mortgage Bonds are showing some positive signs.  The 25-day Moving Average is crossing above its 100-day MA, the Bond has held above the 25-day each of the past few days and the Bond is forming support at a former resistance level.    

      For these reasons, we will continue to float - but looking ahead, clients should be lined up and be prepared to lock in front of Friday's Jobs Report 

       

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