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Blog :: 2015

Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

 

Loan Program

Up to $417,000

$417,001 - $601,450

$601,451-$1,000,000

30 yr Fixed Rate

4% APR 4.076%

4.125% APR 4.181%

3.75% APR 3.791%

15 yr Fixed Rate

3.125% APR 3.258%

3.5% APR 3.616%

3.5% APR 3.580%

5/1 Adjustable Rate

3% APR 3.132%

2.875% APR 2.931%

2.875% APR 2.918%

Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

Current Trend Direction: Sideways, trying to stabilize

Advise Your Clients: Carefully Floating

Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.47, +9bp

After last week's volatility, Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged as traders look ahead to the next big event, the Fed meeting. 

The two-day Fed meeting kicks off next Tuesday the 15th and ends on Wednesday with the monetary policy statement at 2:00pm ET. Fed Fund Futures show an 80% chance of a Fed Fund Rate hike next week, most likely a 0.25% raise. In the absence of a surprise negative shock between now and then, it looks like the Fed must raise rates or lose credibility since they have been signaling a go.

There are no economic reports due out until Thursday's Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. The Treasury will be selling $24B 3-Year T Notes tomorrow, $21B 10-Years on Wednesday and $13B 30-Year Bonds on Thursday.

The Monthly Bond Rollover will take place after the close of trading tomorrow. 

Oil prices continue to edge lower, after OPEC decided not to cut production last week.  Prices are now below $40 a barrel as supply continues to rise.  Economics 101, says when supply outpaces demand, prices must fall.

Technically, Mortgage Bonds continue to try and stabilize after last Friday's impressive rebound. With Stocks lower, advise clients to carefully float, and get prepared to lock once again should prices approach the 200-day Moving Average.

 

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    Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

    Loan Program

    Up to $417,000

    $417,001 - $601,450

    $601,451-$1,000,000

    30 yr Fixed Rate

    4% APR 4.076%

    4.125% APR 4.181%

    3.875% APR 3.920%

    15 yr Fixed Rate

    3.125% APR 3.258%

    3.5% APR 3.616%

    3.5% APR 3.580%

    5/1 Adjustable Rate

    3% APR 3.132%

    2.875% APR 2.931%

    2.875% APR 2.918%

    Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

      

    Current Trend Direction: Sideways beneath resistance

    Advise Your Clients: Locking

    Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.44, Unchanged

    Mortgage Bonds trade near unchanged and remain below resistance as the month of November comes to an end.

    The week's economic calendar is packed with a slew of important economic reports culminating with the November Jobs Report on Friday, where it is expected that employers added 196K new workers.  If this week's Non-farm Payrolls report reveals employment growth remains solid, a Fed Rate hike in December will be highly likely.

    There are no T Note or Bond auctions this week.  Later this morning, October Pending Home Sales and November Chicago PMI will be released. 

    Clients should be advised to lock as prices remain in a tight sideways range, but beneath resistance.  Should prices break above this resistance and step higher, we will be more bullish and will adjust our stance accordingly.

     

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      1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

      Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

       

      Loan Program

      Up to $417,000

      $417,001 - $601,450

      $601,451-$1,000,000

      30 yr Fixed Rate

      4% APR 4.076%

      4.125% APR 4.181%

      3.875% APR 3.920%

      15 yr Fixed Rate

      3.125% APR 3.258%

      3.5% APR 3.616%

      3.5% APR 3.580%

      5/1 Adjustable Rate

      3% APR 3.132%

      2.875% APR 2.931%

      2.875% APR 2.918%

      Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

       

      Current Trend Direction: Sideways to higher

      Advise Your Clients: Floating as technical picture has improved

      Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.25, +6bp

      Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who perished in the tragic attacks in Paris on Friday.

      A flight to the safety trade in response to the attacks is giving Mortgage Bonds a modest boost to start the week.

      The only economic report was the November New York State Manufacturing Index falling 10.7 versus the -6.0 expected, but above the -11.4 recorded in October. That is the 4th straight negative reading for the Index. The news is weighing on Stocks, which opened lower to begin the week.

      The rest of the week will feature key numbers from the housing sector and consumer inflation.  On Wednesday, the minutes from the October Fed meeting will be released at 2:00pm ET and could have the potential to impact the markets. 

      Currently, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike at next month's Fed meeting. 

      Technically, Mortgage Bonds continue to edge higher after stabilizing late last week. Over in the Treasury market, the 10-year Note yield has pushed nicely beneath 2.30%, at 2.25% currently

      We will continue our floating position - but as always, stay tuned should sentiment change. Have a great week!

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        Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

         

        Loan Program

        Up to $417,000

        $417,001 - $601,450

        $601,451-$1,000,000

        30 yr Fixed Rate

        3.875% APR 3.951%

        4% APR 4.066%

        3.75% APR 3.791%

        15 yr Fixed Rate

        3% APR 3.198%

        3.25% APR 3.369%

        3.375% APR 3.453%

        5/1 Adjustable Rate

        3.125% APR 3.132%

        2.75% APR 2.813%

        2.75% APR 2.794%

        Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

         

        Current Trend Direction: Sideways to Lower

        Advise Your Clients: Locking if prices unable to break back above 200-day Moving Average

        Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.03, -9bp

        Mortgage Bonds begin the new month slightly lower after falling below support at the 200-day Moving Average late last week. If prices close beneath this resistance today - which is starting to look likely - clients should be advised to lock.

        It's Jobs week as the important Jobs Report for October will be delivered on Friday.  Expectations are currently at 181K new jobs last month.  More on the subject as the week progresses.  At 10:00am ET, the ISM National Manufacturing Index will be released. 

        Global Stocks rose overnight after stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI's were released in China and Europe.  Weighing on Bond prices was ECB President Draghi making some less-than-dovish remarks over the weekend. In an interview published on October 31, the president of the European Central Bank said that further stimulus is still an "open question".

        Technically, the Bond looks like it wants to stabilize, but underneath resistance at the 200-day Moving Average.  At the same time, the 10-Year Note yield is more comfortable above 2.00%.  With Bonds still near 2015 highs and a big, volatile Jobs Report coming later this week - clients should be advised to lock

         

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          Amateur photographers in Fairfield County are invited to submit photos for the NewBridge International First Annual "Fall for Houses" photo contest.  Photos must showcase candidate's home or property in all its Autumnal Splendor in Fairfield County.  Go to our home page and click on the link.  Submissions are being accepted from October 15 through November 5.

            Comments

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            Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

             

            Loan Program

            Up to $417,000

            $417,001 - $601,450

            $601,451-$1,000,000

            30 yr Fixed Rate

            3.75% APR 3.825%

            4% APR 4.066%

            3.75% APR 3.791%

            15 yr Fixed Rate

            3% APR 3.127%

            3.25% APR 3.369%

            3.25% APR 3.326%

            5/1 Adjustable Rate

            3% APR 3.132%

            2.625% APR 2.686%

            2.625% APR 2.790%

            Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

            Current Trend Direction: Sideways

            Advise Your Clients: Locking

            Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.47, +6bp

            Mortgage Bonds continue to trade just beneath resistance and hover near the best levels of the year.    

            The only economic report to be released today is the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am.  The rest of the week's calendar is on the light side with Weekly Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits and Existing Home Sales.  

            There are no Treasury Note or Bond auctions this week. 

            Stocks are lower on weak earnings out of Morgan Stanley along with China reporting GDP in Q3 of 6.9%. And where it barely beat estimates of 6.8%, it was the first time it was below 7% since the global financial crisis began.  Any other developed country would kill for 6.9% growth, so we are not as disappointed on the news as some may be.

            Technically, as mentioned, the Bond continues in its sideways pattern with no clear signs of a breakout to the upside from current levels. And where we see that Stocks are lower, the sentiment can quickly reverse during the session. Clients  should  still be advised to lock. 

            One thing we are watching ... the importing of deflation on goods and services around the globe. If we see continued deflation and/or disinflation ... that may be enough to push Bonds a bit higher.  

            Clients should still be advised to lock at what looks like the top of the present market.  

              Comments

              1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

              Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

               

              Loan Program

              Up to $417,000

              $417,001 - $601,450

              $601,451-$1,000,000

              30 yr Fixed Rate

              3.75% APR 3.825%

              4% APR 4.066%

              3.75% APR 3.791%

              15 yr Fixed Rate

              3% APR 3.127%

              3.25% APR 3.369%

              3.375% APR 3.453%

              5/1 Adjustable Rate

              3% APR 3.132%

              2.625% APR 2.686%

              2.625% APR 2.790%

              Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

              Current Trend Direction: Lower

              Advise Your Clients: Locking

              Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.19, -3bp

              Note: The Monthly Bond Rollover occurred after the close on Friday with the effect being -9p for the 3.5% coupon. Every month the coupon "rolls over". In this case, this month's coupon is closed out and all new loans are placed into next month's coupon. There is no effect on rate sheets or pricing. Think of it as the time they mature. The recently closed issue, loans that are satisfied 30 years from now, are packaged and sold. Because the seller or wholesale lender now has an additional 30-days, it is like having a 30-day extension on their rate lock.

              Mortgage Bonds begin the week near unchanged, while Treasury prices are higher after the Bond markets closed yesterday in observance of Columbus Day. 

              Weak disappointing trade data out of China is pushing Stock prices lower and comes after seven straight days of gains for Stocks. However, Stock prices are off their opening lows. 

              There are no economic reports due for release today, but the rest of the week is packed with data on wholesale and consumer inflation, manufacturing, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment.  In addition, earnings season continues.  

              Technically, the Bond is trading just above support at the 200-day Moving Average.  With Stocks lower this morning and Mortgage Bonds not being able to put together any meaningful gains, clients should consider locking.  Have a great week. 

                Comments

                1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

                Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

                 

                Loan Program

                Up to $417,000

                $417,001 - $601,450

                $601,451-$1,000,000

                30 yr Fixed Rate

                3.75% APR 3.825%

                4% APR 4.066%

                3.65% APR 3.667%

                15 yr Fixed Rate

                3 % APR 3.127%

                3.125% APR 3.243%

                3.25% APR 3.326%

                5/1 Adjustable Rate

                2.875% APR 2.947%

                2.625% APR 2.686%

                2.625% APR 2.790%

                Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

                Current Trend Direction: Higher

                 

                Advise Your Clients:  Start the day floating...but be ready to lock.

                Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.50, -9bp
                 

                With the specter of a rate hike all but off the table in 2015, Stock futures are pointing higher, while Bond prices open the week slightly lower. 
                 

                September Non-farm Payrolls came in at 142K, below the 205K expected while July and August were revised lower by a total of 59K. There is now nearly no chance of Fed Funds Rate hike at the end of this month, a 27% chance in December with the most likely hike to occur in March 2016...maybe.
                 

                In addition, the US dollar index is trading lower against most major currencies as investors continue to react to Friday's bearish Non-farm Payrolls report as yields pushed lower. Lower Treasury yields are making the U.S. dollar a less-desirable investment.
                 

                The economic calendar is extremely light this week with just today's ISM Services being released at 10am and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday.  The Treasury will be selling a total of $58B in Notes and Bonds this week beginning on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
                 

                The September Fed minutes will be released at 2:00pm ET on Thursday and will garner some attention. 
                 

                Technically, the Bond is now trading above support at the 200-day Moving Average, which was a stiff level of resistance for most of 2015. But with Stocks now feeling giddy, due to the fading chances of a rate hike this year, it could come in expense of Bonds.  Consider trying to float, but be ready to lock once again if prices begin to drift lower.


                  Comments

                  1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

                  Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

                   

                  Loan Program

                  Up to $417,000

                  $417,001 - $601,450

                  $601,451-$1,000,000

                  30 yr Fixed Rate

                  3.875% APR 3.951%

                  4% APR 4.066%

                  3.875% APR 4. 4.930%

                  15 yr Fixed Rate

                  3 % APR 3.127%

                  3.25% APR 3.369%

                  3.375% APR 3.442

                  5/1 Adjustable Rate

                  3% APR 3.132%

                  2.75% APR 2.801%

                  2.75% APR 2.788%

                  Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

                  Current Trend Direction: Topping out at resistance at 200-DMA

                  Advise Your Clients: Locking 

                  Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.94, -16bp

                  Mortgage Bonds are trading lower to begin the week as Stock prices bounce back following the big sell-off after the Fed statement on Thursday.

                  Over the weekend, Fed members John Williams of San Fran and James Bullard of St. Louis said they still expect an increase in 2015. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in a 20% chance of a rate hike in October, 46% chance in December. Later this afternoon Atlanta's Dennis Lockhart will most likely weigh in on the subject, while Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking Thursday night.  The percentage chances of a hike speak for themselves...chances are we don't see one in 2015.

                  The only economic report due for release today is August Existing Home Sales at 10.  The rest of the week's calendar consists of Weekly Claims, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, GDP and Consumer Sentiment.  

                  Technically, the Bond has retreated from resistance at the 200-day Moving Average after having closed near that level on Friday.  With Stock prices on the rise today and with Mortgage Bonds back near the highs seen in late April, clients should feel good locking right here.

                   

                   

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