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Newbridge Properties

Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

 

Loan Program

Up to $417,000

$417,001 - $601,450

$601,451-$1,000,000

30 yr Fixed Rate

3.75% APR 3.825%

3.875% APR 3.944%

3.75% APR 3.791%

15 yr Fixed Rate

3% APR 3.127%

3.375% APR 3.472%

3.375% APR 3.453%

5/1 Adjustable Rate

3% APR 3.132%

2.75% APR 2.813%

2.75% APR 2.794%

Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

 

Current Trend Direction: Topping out at highs seen in May and October

Advise Your Clients: Locking

Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.56, -9bp

The new month is ushered in today after the U.S. Stock markets suffered their worst losses for a January since 2009.

able to rebound in the last week of trading.  Oil prices are lower to begin the month on fading prospects of a cut in production from OPEC. 

Despite lower Stock prices, Mortgage Bonds are flat to lower as they hover near the highs seen in April, which subsequently saw prices plunge soon after. 

In economic news, inflation, as measured by the Core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, was unchanged in December from November and up 1.4% year-over-year. The 1.4% is far below the Fed's target range of 2%.  Personal Spending was unchanged and below the 0.2% expected, while Personal Incomes were up 0.3%, just above the 0.2% expected.

At 10 a.m. ET, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. The big economic headlines will come on Friday with the January Jobs Report. 

Technically, as mentioned, prices are near the highs seen in April and if you take a look at the chart in a six-month and year view for the Fannie Mae 3.5% 30-year coupon, you can see the big decline from those levels. 

Continue to advise clients to lock and secure current pricing while it lasts. 

 

 

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    Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

     

    Loan Program

    Up to $417,000

    $417,001 - $601,450

    $601,451-$1,000,000

    30 yr Fixed Rate

    3.875% APR 3.951%

    4% APR 4.066%

    3.75% APR 3.791%

    15 yr Fixed Rate

    3% APR 3.127%

    3.375% APR 3.472%

    3.25% APR 3.326%

    5/1 Adjustable Rate

    3% APR 3.132%

    2.75% APR 2.813%

    2.75% APR 2.794%

    Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

    Current Trend Direction: Higher, right at resistance

    Advise Your Clients: Locking

    Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.97, -3bp

    Stocks are higher, but well off of their best levels as oil has started to slip lower again. This has helped Bonds gain some ground off of their worst levels. lso helping Stocks were positive earnings reports from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. 

    China reported 6.9% GDP growth in 2015, down from 7.3% in 2014 and the slowest annual growth in 25 years.  The country’s transition to a more service oriented economy is a large, complicated change that will take more time and likely result in slower GDP numbers in the near-term.   

    The only economic report due for release today is the January NAHB Housing Market Index coming in at 60, below the 61 expected. The rest of the week's calendar is on the light side with CPI, more housing data and the Philly Fed Index. 

    There are no T-Note or Bond auctions this week. 

    Technically, the Bond is trading above its 200-day moving average, but is having difficulty pushing through another tough level of resistance.  At the same time, the 10-year Note yield is at 2.05% after hitting 1.99% in the past few trading days.  New clients should be advised to lock

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      Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

       

      Loan Program

      Up to $417,000

      $417,001 - $601,450

      $601,451-$1,000,000

      30 yr Fixed Rate

      4% APR 4.076%

      4.125% APR 4.181%

      3.875% APR 3.920%

      15 yr Fixed Rate

      3.125% APR 3.258%

      3.5% APR 3.616%

      3.5% APR 3.580%

      5/1 Adjustable Rate

      3% APR 3.132%

      2.875% APR 2.931%

      2.875% APR 3.918%

      Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

      Current Trend Direction: Sideways beneath resistance at 200-day moving average

      Advise Your Clients:  Locking

      Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.72, -19bp

      Mortgage Bonds are giving back Friday's gains as Stocks, which are off to their worst start to begin a year on record, try to rebound.

      There are no economic reports due for release today and the week's calendar is on the light side.  The Treasury will be selling a boatload of 3- and 10-year Notes along with 30-year Bonds this week beginning on Tuesday.  

      Despite a big sell-off in the Asian Stock markets, the major indexes are set to open higher here in the States. Earnings season unofficially kicks off today with Alcoa reporting results after the closing bell on Wall Street.  S&P 500 earnings are forecast to have dropped 4.2% percent in the 4th quarter, which would be their 2nd straight

      Technically, the Bond was able to close above resistance at the 200-day moving average on Friday, but has fallen below that level today.  Seeing that this morning's losses will erase some or most of Friday's gains and the 200-day looks like it will once again be a tough ceiling ... consider advising clients to lock.

      It will be interesting to see how stocks trade going forward. The S&P 500 violated support at the 1,960 area ... a level that will be resistance going forward.

       

       

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        Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

         

        Loan Program

        Up to $417,000

        $417,001 - $601,450

        $601,451-$1,000,000

        30 yr Fixed Rate

        4% APR 4.076%

        4.25% APR 4.311%

        4% APR 4.039%

        15 yr Fixed Rate

        3.25% APR 3.383%

        3.5% APR 3.616%

        3.625% APR 3.698%

        5/1 Adjustable Rate

        3% APR 3.132%

        3% APR 3.058%

        3% APR 3.038%

        Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

        Current Trend Direction: Higher

        Advise Your Clients: Start Day Carefully Floating – but read on

        Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.38, +19bp

        There is nothing like some heightened Mideast tensions, wicked Stock selloff in China and a significant decline in Stocks here in the US to ring in the New Year.

        The big news so far this AM, is Saudi Arabia cutting off diplomatic ties with Iran?  This news has caused Oil to move higher on what could bring even more uncertainty to the region.  

        Weak economic news in China has caused a shockwave as their major Stock market is down a whopping 7% before circuit breakers kicked in and closed the market for the rest of the trading day.  All of this negativity and uncertainty has given Mortgage Bonds a somewhat modest boost.

        The yield on the 10-Year T-Note has fallen back down to 2.22% from Thursday's close of 2.28%. 

        The only economic report today is the 10am release of the December ISM Index. But investors will be looking ahead to the Friday release of the December Jobs Report, which features the closely watched Non-farm Payrolls report, where it is expected that employers added 200K new workers. 

        There are no Note or Bond auctions scheduled for this week. The Fed will be back in the markets this week purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities.  The New York Fed will be purchasing up to $2.325B in Fannie/Freddie 30-Year 3.5s and 4s later this morning.

        Seeing Mortgage Bonds up just 19bp in the face of very weak Stock prices is a bit of a concern, as we would expect to see more Bond gains in the face of such high uncertainty.  With that said, consider starting the day carefully floating new clients – with the key word being “carefully”.  It would not surprise us if Bonds give up some of these gains.  Looking ahead, we are likely going to advise locking in advance of the volatile Jobs Report later this week.

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          1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

          Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

           

          Loan Program

          Up to $417,000

          $417,001 - $601,450

          $601,451-$1,000,000

          30 yr Fixed Rate

          4% APR 4.076%

          4.125% APR 4.181%

          3.75% APR 3.791%

          15 yr Fixed Rate

          3.125% APR 3.258%

          3.5% APR 3.616%

          3.5% APR 3.580%

          5/1 Adjustable Rate

          3% APR 3.132%

          2.875% APR 2.931%

          2.875% APR 2.918%

          Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

          Current Trend Direction: Sideways, trying to stabilize

          Advise Your Clients: Carefully Floating

          Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.47, +9bp

          After last week's volatility, Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged as traders look ahead to the next big event, the Fed meeting. 

          The two-day Fed meeting kicks off next Tuesday the 15th and ends on Wednesday with the monetary policy statement at 2:00pm ET. Fed Fund Futures show an 80% chance of a Fed Fund Rate hike next week, most likely a 0.25% raise. In the absence of a surprise negative shock between now and then, it looks like the Fed must raise rates or lose credibility since they have been signaling a go.

          There are no economic reports due out until Thursday's Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. The Treasury will be selling $24B 3-Year T Notes tomorrow, $21B 10-Years on Wednesday and $13B 30-Year Bonds on Thursday.

          The Monthly Bond Rollover will take place after the close of trading tomorrow. 

          Oil prices continue to edge lower, after OPEC decided not to cut production last week.  Prices are now below $40 a barrel as supply continues to rise.  Economics 101, says when supply outpaces demand, prices must fall.

          Technically, Mortgage Bonds continue to try and stabilize after last Friday's impressive rebound. With Stocks lower, advise clients to carefully float, and get prepared to lock once again should prices approach the 200-day Moving Average.

           

            Comments

            1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

            Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

            Loan Program

            Up to $417,000

            $417,001 - $601,450

            $601,451-$1,000,000

            30 yr Fixed Rate

            4% APR 4.076%

            4.125% APR 4.181%

            3.875% APR 3.920%

            15 yr Fixed Rate

            3.125% APR 3.258%

            3.5% APR 3.616%

            3.5% APR 3.580%

            5/1 Adjustable Rate

            3% APR 3.132%

            2.875% APR 2.931%

            2.875% APR 2.918%

            Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

              

            Current Trend Direction: Sideways beneath resistance

            Advise Your Clients: Locking

            Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.44, Unchanged

            Mortgage Bonds trade near unchanged and remain below resistance as the month of November comes to an end.

            The week's economic calendar is packed with a slew of important economic reports culminating with the November Jobs Report on Friday, where it is expected that employers added 196K new workers.  If this week's Non-farm Payrolls report reveals employment growth remains solid, a Fed Rate hike in December will be highly likely.

            There are no T Note or Bond auctions this week.  Later this morning, October Pending Home Sales and November Chicago PMI will be released. 

            Clients should be advised to lock as prices remain in a tight sideways range, but beneath resistance.  Should prices break above this resistance and step higher, we will be more bullish and will adjust our stance accordingly.

             

              Comments

              1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

              Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

               

              Loan Program

              Up to $417,000

              $417,001 - $601,450

              $601,451-$1,000,000

              30 yr Fixed Rate

              4% APR 4.076%

              4.125% APR 4.181%

              3.875% APR 3.920%

              15 yr Fixed Rate

              3.125% APR 3.258%

              3.5% APR 3.616%

              3.5% APR 3.580%

              5/1 Adjustable Rate

              3% APR 3.132%

              2.875% APR 2.931%

              2.875% APR 2.918%

              Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

               

              Current Trend Direction: Sideways to higher

              Advise Your Clients: Floating as technical picture has improved

              Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $103.25, +6bp

              Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who perished in the tragic attacks in Paris on Friday.

              A flight to the safety trade in response to the attacks is giving Mortgage Bonds a modest boost to start the week.

              The only economic report was the November New York State Manufacturing Index falling 10.7 versus the -6.0 expected, but above the -11.4 recorded in October. That is the 4th straight negative reading for the Index. The news is weighing on Stocks, which opened lower to begin the week.

              The rest of the week will feature key numbers from the housing sector and consumer inflation.  On Wednesday, the minutes from the October Fed meeting will be released at 2:00pm ET and could have the potential to impact the markets. 

              Currently, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike at next month's Fed meeting. 

              Technically, Mortgage Bonds continue to edge higher after stabilizing late last week. Over in the Treasury market, the 10-year Note yield has pushed nicely beneath 2.30%, at 2.25% currently

              We will continue our floating position - but as always, stay tuned should sentiment change. Have a great week!

                Comments

                1. No comments. Be the first to comment.

                Weekly Mortgage Message from our in-house Mortgage Master Specialist Colleen Polson

                 

                Loan Program

                Up to $417,000

                $417,001 - $601,450

                $601,451-$1,000,000

                30 yr Fixed Rate

                3.875% APR 3.951%

                4% APR 4.066%

                3.75% APR 3.791%

                15 yr Fixed Rate

                3% APR 3.198%

                3.25% APR 3.369%

                3.375% APR 3.453%

                5/1 Adjustable Rate

                3.125% APR 3.132%

                2.75% APR 2.813%

                2.75% APR 2.794%

                Single family, owner occupied, 80% loan to value, 740 or better fico

                 

                Current Trend Direction: Sideways to Lower

                Advise Your Clients: Locking if prices unable to break back above 200-day Moving Average

                Current Price of FNMA 3.5% Bond: $104.03, -9bp

                Mortgage Bonds begin the new month slightly lower after falling below support at the 200-day Moving Average late last week. If prices close beneath this resistance today - which is starting to look likely - clients should be advised to lock.

                It's Jobs week as the important Jobs Report for October will be delivered on Friday.  Expectations are currently at 181K new jobs last month.  More on the subject as the week progresses.  At 10:00am ET, the ISM National Manufacturing Index will be released. 

                Global Stocks rose overnight after stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI's were released in China and Europe.  Weighing on Bond prices was ECB President Draghi making some less-than-dovish remarks over the weekend. In an interview published on October 31, the president of the European Central Bank said that further stimulus is still an "open question".

                Technically, the Bond looks like it wants to stabilize, but underneath resistance at the 200-day Moving Average.  At the same time, the 10-Year Note yield is more comfortable above 2.00%.  With Bonds still near 2015 highs and a big, volatile Jobs Report coming later this week - clients should be advised to lock

                 

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                  Fall for Houses Photo Competition

                  Amateur photographers in Fairfield County are invited to submit photos for the NewBridge International First Annual "Fall for Houses" photo contest.  Photos must showcase candidate's home or property in all its Autumnal Splendor in Fairfield County.  Go to our home page and click on the link.  Submissions are being accepted from October 15 through November 5.

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